ARTICLE
Intensification of Rivalry among Global Powers as a Military Threat
to International Security in the Second Decade of the 21st Century
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Uniwersytet Śląski w Katowicach
Publication date: 2017-06-30
Stosunki Międzynarodowe – International Relations 2017;53(2):57-72
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ABSTRACT
This article aims to answer two questions. First, whether the rivalry between
global powers in the second decade of the 21st century increases the risk of classic
military conflict between them; second, what kind of tools (including violent and
non-violent methods) are to be used nowadays by powers in order to compete with
other international actors. The paper argues that rivalry between the weakening West
and Russia/China is getting more intense, which is especially evident in the military
dimension (e.g.: rising expenditures, incidents, as well as recent troops build-up
abroad). Moreover, new or aspiring powers are more assertive in achieving their goals
in the international environment due to the problems experienced by the West. These
increased tensions do not mean, however, that the world is on the road to the next
‘big war’. Due to the catastrophic implications of such a scenario, global powers
will likely use other, non-standard methods of competing with their rivals, below
the ‘threshold of war’. These include: proxy wars, hybrid warfare, cyberattacks,
information operations, as well as exploitation of migration flows.